The Wild Ride: U.S. Lumber Prices Since 2019

Few commodity stories in recent American memory have been as dramatic as what happened to lumber prices starting in 2019. What began as a relatively calm market was upended by a pandemic, a housing frenzy, supply chain chaos, and now a new era of tariff-driven uncertainty. Here is the full account.

The Pre-Pandemic Baseline (2019)

Going into 2019, lumber prices were recovering from a sharp correction. After a significant spike in 2018 (driven by strong housing demand and new Canadian import tariffs), the market cooled considerably. Framing lumber prices in Q4 of 2019 sat at a level that would soon serve as the baseline for one of the most stunning commodity price explosions in U.S. history. At that point, no one was predicting what was about to unfold.

The Pandemic Ignition (2020–2021)

When COVID-19 arrived in early 2020, lumber prices initially fell. The price stood at roughly $259.80 per thousand board feet on April 1, 2020. But within months, the market reversed violently. The pandemic’s onset disrupted production, ignited a wave of DIY home projects, and stoked a robust housing market thanks to historically low interest rates. Lumber costs surged, at one point rising more than 200% above pre-pandemic levels.

The housing deficit in the United States that the pandemic brought to light had actually been building since the 2008 recession, with the U.S. short an estimated 3.8 million housing units by the end of 2020. That deficit, combined with remote work reshaping where Americans wanted to live, created explosive demand for new construction just as sawmill capacity was constrained.

From its low in early April 2020 to its peak in May 2021, the price per 1,000 board feet of lumber increased almost 530%, reaching $1,630. By May 7, 2021, lumber had hit $1,686 per thousand board feet, as the DIY boom coincided with dire challenges to the lumber industry including increased homebuilding, mill closures, and staffing shortages.

The price of softwood plywood increased by more than 200% and oriented strand board (OSB) prices skyrocketed nearly 500% since April 2020. Such price increases added nearly $30,000 to the average price of a new single-family home.

The Crash and Rebound (2021–2023)

The peak was short-lived. Less than a week after reaching that high, the price fell by nearly a quarter, further sinking to $454.40 as of September 15, 2021, before rising again to over $1,000 at the beginning of 2022. Rising interest rates then tempered the housing market, prompting a decline. Framing lumber fell 42%, plywood dropped 55% from its 2021 peak, and pine boards retracted 10% following their 225% climb.

By mid-2023, the price per 1,000 board feet of lumber had decreased steadily to $344 as of May 15, 2023. The correction was nearly complete, and the market found a floor. It wouldn’t stay quiet for long.

The Tariff Era and Today (2024–2026)

Prices began recovering again in 2024 and 2025. The price of framing lumber reached $903.14 per MBF (thousand board feet) in October 2025, and year-over-year lumber costs were up 12.71%. With lumber less available than it had been since 2019, no corner of North America was immune to cost increases.

The outlook for lumber pricing in 2026 remains highly uncertain. The latest lumber prices from December 2025 remained relatively low despite combined duties of nearly 45% on U.S. imports of softwood lumber from Canada. Waning housing production over 2025 created an environment where lumber supply was continually above demand, especially in the second half of the year.

As of April 2026, lumber futures traded around $570 per thousand board feet, near a one-month low. The downward pressure was driven by a 14.2% collapse in single-family housing starts and a 5.4% decline in building permits that signaled an abrupt cooling of spring activity.

The 2019-to-present era will be remembered as one of the most volatile chapters in lumber market history. A story driven by a global pandemic, a housing shortage decades in the making, and a geopolitical trade war that shows no signs of resolution.