From Recession Floor to Recovery: U.S. Lumber Prices Since 2010

The 2010s were supposed to be boring for lumber. After the catastrophic crash of 2008 and 2009, the decade began at a historic low, then quietly climbed back to stability — until the very end, when volatility returned with a vengeance. This is the story of a market’s long, uneven recovery.

Starting at Rock Bottom (2010–2012)

The Great Recession of 2008 devastated the American housing industry, and lumber was caught directly in the wreckage. Housing starts in 2009 fell to the lowest level since the indicator began counting in 1959. This unprecedentedly low level of building depressed lumber prices.

With housing starts falling from more than two million a year in 2005 to one-fourth of that level by 2009, mill curtailments across the country caused lumber capacity to drop from 20.5 billion board feet in 2006 to 17.1 billion board feet by 2011 — a 16% decrease. The mills that survived were operating well below capacity. The industry had been hollowed out.

In 2009 and 2010, virtually every major western mill suffered curtailments and 30 large mills closed permanently. Employment declined by 71,000 workers and lumber production fell by almost 50% from 2005 to 2009.

The Gradual Climb (2012–2017)

Recovery, when it came, was slow but steady. By 2012, housing starts began to come back and remained at normal levels with no major economic disturbances over several years. As construction activity ticked up, lumber prices followed — but the market remained relatively calm by historical standards. The industry benefited from a Goldilocks environment: demand was rising, but not so fast that supply couldn’t keep pace.

Prices through the mid-2010s generally hovered in the $250–$400 per thousand board feet range, reflecting a market in cautious recovery mode. Mills were hesitant to invest heavily in new capacity given the trauma of 2008, which would prove to be a fateful decision when demand later surged.

The U.S.–Canada softwood lumber trade relationship also became a flashpoint. Following the expiration of the 2006 U.S.–Canada Softwood Lumber Agreement in October 2015, the softwood lumber trade debate became active again. In response to surging Canadian softwood lumber shipments, the U.S. International Trade Commission levied up to 24% antidumping and countervailing duties starting in November 2017. Those tariffs immediately pushed prices higher.

The 2018 Spike and Correction

Lumber held steady for most of the 2010s, with the exception of a spike in 2018. Lumber prices fell by around 50% between June and September 2018 after that spike — a sharp but short-lived reversal that previewed the volatility to come in the next decade.

The 2018 spike was driven by a combination of the new Canadian tariffs, strong housing demand in certain markets, and continued tightness in mill capacity. During the housing crash, when mills began shutting down, skilled workers found themselves displaced. Ten-plus years later, that skilled labor had either moved closer to other mills in operation or changed careers entirely. The industry’s inability to quickly scale up when demand returned would become a recurring vulnerability.

Setting the Stage for What Came Next

By the end of the 2010s, lumber prices had returned to something resembling pre-crisis norms — but the structural imbalances created by the decade’s mill closures and workforce losses had not been repaired. The market entered 2020 with prices around $350–$400 per thousand board feet: higher than the post-crash lows, but manageable. What no one knew was that the decade of patient recovery was about to be upended by a crisis no one saw coming.

The 2010s were, in the end, a decade of halting progress — a market that stitched itself back together piece by piece, only to arrive at the next era more fragile than it appeared.